Bay "turnover"; when will it happen
 

If you read my posts about yesterday and today's trolling trips, you know I have reported both bait and fish deep (>50 ft).

I surmized that the spring "turnover" has not happened yet. If you want a good explanation of this; see Shawn Kimbro's websight and read the May 15th 2009 post.

I did an AOL search looking for "Chesapeake Bay Turnover" and his site came up. Check it out. I'll let you know when the "flip" occours.

5th (Marty)

Hard to guess this year....but I'd say it will be a lot sooner than the previous few years.

It never got really cold this year....Sure there were a few days where the boys were a crawling up, but nothing like most winters.

I never saw more than a little cursory ice around shorelines in the more brackish waters of the upper rivers.

Even most ponds barely froze over for more than a day or two.

One theory is the deeper water on eastern side is saltier and tends to move up the bay - regardless of current. It also tends to be warmer then the fresher water near surface

I've noticed early season the Rock tend to be deeper on out going current.

Once we get some bait migrating near the surface - I'll bet the Rock move upwards - at least to feed.

I've seen them in late March on calm days just under the surface.

One old timer told me they are getting warmth from the sun - using their dark back as a heat exchanger. Not sure if that is the case or first foot or two is warmer due to sunny day.

One of the topics discussed over beers at MSSA, was the fact everyone is in agreement, its going to happen a lot earlier than normal.

Personally, let the Pro's figure it out. Look for reports from the Flats and or the availability of the guide services, if they are booked, you know they have arrived.