2012 Predictions?

[Spot77]

2011 was an "interesting" year. We had a couple of really bad storms close together that flooded the bay with more debris than I've ever seen in my life.

Oddly enough, for me the fishing stayed pretty good following those storms. It just took us 10x longer to get to where we wanted to fish.

Now that the debris is 99% gone and most of the shorelines have been cleaned up, I suppose it's a waiting game to see what effect, if any the sunken debris will have on this year's fishing.

I didn't see any algae blooms north of the bridge in 2011 and I can't recall hearing of any bad ones anywhere. Maybe someone has other info?

I saw NO Skates north of the bridge or at the bridge in 2011. Previous years they were pretty thick.

Croaker fishing was over in about a sneeze's length of time.

Caught massive amounts of BIG catfish in the middle of the bay on all kinds of lures....from Beetlespins and rattletraps to live bait and fishbites.

What other factors should we be concerned about this year? Anyone have any scientific or historical data to share that can help us with our predictions?

I'd love for someone to present the case, with good supporting documentation that we'll have a great year of fishing.

[Skip]

IMHO - Tough to predict too far ahead due.

Much of our success has to due with how much rain we get - and how heavy the run off is.

Years with little rain sees the bay become more salty and fish like Spanish Macs move farther up the bay.

Years with heavy rains like 2010 - we see Carp at the Bay Bridge.

I think the early season should be good - far amount of big Rock - but they might leave early if warmer then normal weather continues.

I'm thinking late March - 1st week of April to be good for pre season trolling.

Once it opens on 21st - best fishing most likely will be the weekdays that follow.

Opening weekend often is tough due to heavy boat traffic.

Following weekend is Rod / reel - MSSA tournaments - very crowded again.

DNR surveys show good numbers of White Perch - hopefully they are correct.

Big Perch over 11 inches are awesome targets and great eating.

Now , let's keep our fingers crossed that no massive storms hit and muddy the bay. Nice , light all day rain is far better.

[Spot77]

I've read a lot of weather guesses about the coming year and if the majority of them prevail, we might have exactly what Skip is keeping his fingers crossed for.


I think the salinity will be up over 2011.

It's good to hear that the White Perch again appear plentiful. I caught less White Perch in 2011 than 2010, but they were substantially bigger in 2011. I don't think we'll be catching as many cats in the bay or at the mouths of the rivers this year. I guess I'll be motoring upriver to find a few this year.

[Skip]

I bet a few of those big Catfish will turn up as a surprise catch in the Magothy and Severn rivers.

Stands to reason some moved into the rivers rather then return back up the bay.

One thing that might have huge impact on waters north of the bridge is the oysters that died off over summer / fall due to freshwater coming down the bay.

Most areas saw 90-100% die off. The live oysters support all types of tiny critters that start the food chain and draw in bait - which in turn draws in Perch / Rock.

[reds]

Originally Posted by Skip

I bet a few of those big Catfish will turn up as a surprise catch in the Magothy and Severn rivers.

Stands to reason some moved into the rivers rather then return back up the bay.

One thing that might have huge impact on waters north of the bridge is the oysters that died off over summer / fall due to freshwater coming down the bay.

Most areas saw 90-100% die off. The live oysters support all types of tiny critters that start the food chain and draw in bait - which in turn draws in Perch / Rock.

Salinity works both ways on the oyster and clams. To much salt and diseases MSX and Dermo are a problem.

[Skip]

Reds - There seems to be some hope with Dermo and MSX as oysters appear to be gaining resistance to these diseases.

Each year - less are found dead on lower bay bars.

Let's just hope no new oyster diseases get released into our bay waters.

[Southerly]

i think the weatherman standard is to play 'the long game', ie predict next year to be 'normal' and/or to help avg out unusual features of this year. that would mean at least normal salinity and normal distribution of spot i suppose.

didn't del have to increase their striped bass citation size fr 37 to 40" last year?

and there a new pending VA state record rock? why not another NC record, assuming it gets cold enough to push them on down there in the regular numbers. md? - that's a tough call. i can't even guess if our weather pattern is favoring that being possible but it seems like there's better than fair percentage of big ones out there.

i expect this year's baby rock to have surface-feeding frenzies next fall, the way they should, all over the place.

hopefully snakeheads didn't spread but i expect that's likely happened. but it will probly take a couple years to see if they reproduce in new areas.

[Southerly]

ps - i have no historical or scientific data. sorry. i sped read and missed that part before posting.

[reds]

Originally Posted by Skip

Reds - There seems to be some hope with Dermo and MSX as oysters appear to be gaining resistance to these diseases.

Each year - less are found dead on lower bay bars.

Let's just hope no new oyster diseases get released into our bay waters.

Virginia has had some success in rivers with low salinity, especially with MSX.

Most of Maryland's oysters last about three to four years and then die from the diseases.

[Rivercat09]

Last year kind of sucked, but it wasn't for the fishing. The fishing was fairly good, but we has easily as many blowouts and bumped up weather as we did chances to fish. I just drew the short straw last year weather-wise, but my luck with the wind did start to change towards the tail end of the season. As for the fishing, I'm hoping for a good 2012

Originally Posted by Skip

I bet a few of those big Catfish will turn up as a surprise catch in the Magothy and Severn rivers.

I still want to bring some chicken livers with me one of these times and target some cats.